独家专报！美联储降息预期骤变 华尔街喜忧参半：经济衰退风险犹存？

美联储降息预期骤变 华尔街喜忧参半：经济衰退风险犹存？

北京讯 - 美联储6月议息会议如期落幕，维持利率不变，但最新发布的“点阵图”却大幅降低了降息预期，令市场颇感意外。原本预期美联储将释放年内降息多次的信号，但结果却只显示委员们预计今年最多降息一次，甚至有8位委员认为不应降息。

这一转变引发了华尔街的热议。一些分析人士认为，这表明美联储对通胀的担忧有所缓解，并开始关注经济增长放缓的风险。毕竟，5月份美国PPI意外下跌，创7个月最大降幅，显示出通胀压力有所缓和。

鸽派人士欢呼雀跃，认为美联储更加审慎的态度有利于避免过度收紧政策导致经济衰退。他们预计，美联储将在今年晚些时候开始降息，以支持经济增长。

鹰派人士则表示担忧，认为美联储可能低估了通胀的粘性，过早放松货币政策可能导致通胀卷土重来。他们呼吁美联储维持鹰派立场，直至通胀得到更明确的控制。

市场反应喜忧参半。美股三大指数在议息会议后涨跌互现，道指小幅下跌，纳指和标普500指数则小幅上涨。其中，科技股普遍表现强劲，苹果、微软、英伟达等巨头市值再创新高。

总体而言，美联储降息预期骤变反映出市场对经济前景的复杂预期。尽管通胀有所缓解，但经济增长放缓的风险依然存在。美联储未来的货币政策走向将如何演变，仍需密切关注。

以下是一些值得关注的细节：

• 美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，尽管通胀数据喜人，但委员会仍将密切关注通胀形势，并采取必要措施应对通胀风险。
• 多位美联储官员表示，他们对经济前景感到担忧，并认为需要密切监测经济数据。
• 市场预计，美联储将在7月或9月再次召开议息会议，届时将公布最新的利率决议和经济预测。

此外，还有以下几点值得思考：

• 美联储的货币政策转向是否会对全球经济产生影响？
• 新兴市场国家将如何应对美联储加息和降息？
• 全球央行将如何协调货币政策？

美联储的货币政策决策将对全球经济产生重大影响。投资者和企业应密切关注美联储的动向，并做好应对措施。

A Wave of "Kete Valuation" Sweeps Through the Market: 50 Stocks Poised for Strong Growth

Shanghai, China - June 17, 2024 - A recent surge in investor sentiment towards growth stocks, particularly in the healthcare and technology sectors, has been dubbed the "Kete Valuation" phenomenon, named after the Chinese pharmaceutical company C-Bridge (6160.HK). This trend is reminiscent of the "CATL Valuation" rally that occurred in 2021, driven by the strong performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300015.SZ).

The "Kete Valuation" is characterized by a sharp increase in the share prices of companies with promising growth prospects, often defying broader market trends. This is evident in the recent performance of 50 stocks identified by analysts as having significant growth potential. These stocks, spanning various industries including healthcare, technology, and consumer goods, have exhibited remarkable resilience amidst recent market volatility.

Factors Driving the "Kete Valuation"

Several factors are contributing to the "Kete Valuation" trend. Firstly, investors are increasingly seeking out companies that can deliver sustainable growth, particularly in the face of global economic uncertainties. Secondly, the easing of monetary policy in major economies is providing a supportive backdrop for riskier assets like growth stocks. Additionally, advancements in technology and innovation are creating new opportunities for companies in various sectors, fueling investor optimism.

Key Beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation"

Among the 50 stocks identified as potential beneficiaries of the "Kete Valuation," C-Bridge (6160.HK) stands out as a frontrunner. The company's innovative cancer therapies and strong pipeline of new drugs have attracted significant investor interest. Other notable stocks include:

• Ascletis Pharma (1672.HK): A clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies for cancer and viral diseases.

• Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.SZ): A leading provider of comprehensive eye care services in China.

• Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK): A global technology company known for its smartphones, smart home devices, and internet services.

Investment Implications

The "Kete Valuation" presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the growth potential of select companies. However, careful due diligence is crucial, as not all growth stocks are created equal. Investors should thoroughly evaluate a company's financial health, competitive landscape, and long-term growth prospects before making investment decisions.

The "Kete Valuation" highlights the evolving dynamics of the Chinese stock market, where investors are increasingly discerning and seeking out companies with genuine growth potential. This trend is likely to continue as China's economy transitions towards a more innovation-driven and knowledge-based model.